Cerulean_IsFancyBlue

Cerulean_IsFancyBlue t1_ja8fj6r wrote

Reply to comment by Bismar7 in Their future is AI, not ours. by [deleted]

Projecting exponential growth indefinitely is a common hazard of speculating.

If you looked at movie theaters in the 1930s, or televisions in the 1950s, or gaming consoles in the early 1990s, you also have an exponential curve

If you looked at the speed of travel in the 1970s, not only would you have an exponential curve, but you’d be anticipating supersonic flight as a regular commercial service. Which simply came and went.

And last, there are times when exponential growth does not have exponential effects.

Simply pointing to an exponential curve, especially for technology, does not answer questions. It asks them.

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Cerulean_IsFancyBlue t1_ja8f1gj wrote

It did. You might want to read up on the human suffering of the industrial revolution. It would be possible to structure society in a way, where that didn’t have to happen when new technology comes along, but we still don’t have that society and here comes another tech revolution.

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Cerulean_IsFancyBlue t1_ja8emih wrote

The future belongs to the children. It is both true, and mostly meaningless trite phrase.

There may be a moment when something happens that only new children get to take advantage of. Some kind of anti-aging process that requires treatment in utero, or retention of cord blood which is something that only wealthy people are able to do at this point. At that point, there may be an infection, where all the people born too early are not able to take advantage of this piece of the future. It’s a common trope in science fiction.

I don’t see how that applies to AI. We will see the usual set of people who can’t adapt to new technology, just like my grandparents could never operate a VCR except to play a movie. We will also see that being a child with something exists does not automatically mean that you understand how to use it properly. It’s just less likely you’ll have mental blocks for TRYING it.

“The steam engine belongs to the children!” Feels similar to me. Different era, different tech, society will thrash around, but you don’t need to be a kid to get it.

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Cerulean_IsFancyBlue t1_j8vo9uh wrote

Not everyone knows Tesla.

There’s a huge awareness of the Tesla brand.

There’s a pop-culture, geek level awareness of Nicky Tesla, usually a distorted idea of him not strictly historical or biographical.

There are just also a bunch of other people that have no clue. Tesla has not yet reach the level of Napoleon or Einstein for example.

It’s also true that Westinghouse was a major brand itself. Westinghouse was a household name for lightbulbs for example, up until at least the early 2000’s. Westinghouse himself was not as colorful as Tesla, so, even when the brand was famous, there was definitely not as much of a cult of personality around the individual.

Long-term, I think Tesla, as a character has more staying power. His inventions were more spectacular (if less practical for the most part), and he benefits from the kind of retro futurism chic that Da Vinci does.

Add so often happens, popularity will come and go based on current events. Look at how Alexander Hamilton is having a resurgence among the USA founding fathers thanks to a hit Broadway musical. If the Tesla brand fades, and somebody makes a musical about Edison versus Westinghouse, maybe Westinghouse will take his place in the pantheon of historical figures with pop-culture credentials.

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