Yeah I think it just tells you that arxiv is becoming more popular.

Oh, sorry, I gotcha.

Not to be a buzz kill but if you plot just generally the number of papers on arxiv per month it is also exponential looking.

There were lots of AI articles in the 90s, just not on Arxiv. You could plot papers in general on arxiv and it would look exponential.

>soon, Deepmind, OpenAI, and others will have a model in their hands that you can interact with that will provide all the correct answers to significant scientific questions: how to perform fusion, create affordable quantum computers, create new propulsion technology, and reverse aging.

This is a wild, wild assumption. Not only in terms of timeline (which I think is insanely optimistic) but even that some of these problems HAVE solutions. It might be the case that it is literally impossible to have efficient small-scale fusion power. There could be a physical limit of the universe that prevents it. It might be impossible to scale quantum computers beyond a certain number of qubits. It might be impossible to reverse aging. None of these things are guaranteed even with strong AI.

We really have no idea what is going to happen and anyone that tells you they do is lying or wrong.

I think you are likely correct, but the assumption you are making is that there is no "next level" of physics that we aren't even close to breaching yet. Like how we went from classical mechanics to quantum physics. It changed basically everything. If there is some other deeper thing that explains some of the many things we can't explain with our current models, it could lead to crazy new physics that would be very hard for us to understand. There is no guarantee that it would be as understandable as what we have now. It could be 1000x more complex or something.

And then imagine that there might be a level beyond even that one that is 1000x more complex. We just don't know. If all we have is the physics that we know about right now, then yeah everything will be explainable to us but also the "power" of the AI will be severely limited compared to what people traditionally imagine when thinking about the singularity. There will be physical limits to what even the super-powered AI can do.

Bottom line, I think we just have no idea of knowing what is going to happen. That is why it is called the singularity.

I'm confused, do you think most people just work for 40 years and hate their lives so that they can retire eventually and stop working? That sounds like your personal issue. Most people still think their lives are worth living even if they have to work during the week.