I mean that we know for a fact (the Nobel prize was just given for this) that when you aren’t looking at something it behaves in a diffuse manner described by a probability distribution, and effectively follows multiple paths and interacts in multiple different ways. This is more complicated to calculate than if you are looking at it, in which case it collapses to a single path.

This is the reason that we can’t simulate quantum mechanics with computers, it is exponentially more complicated than macro scale classical physics.

I think this is the opposite of how quantum mechanics works though. If something is not observed, the wave function is harder to compute than a discrete, collapsed event.

They didn't spy on the entire human population, that doesn't even make sense as a statement.

>I mean powerful people in US are not dumb

Have you seen the president we have now or the one we had before that or any of a dozen senators with below-average IQ?

The debate is over, says this one rambling, incoherent Wordpress post.

You are possibly describing the idea of the cosmological horizon? It is possible (some believe very likely) that our universe is infinitely large, but since it is expanding faster than light we will never be able to see or interact with anything past a certain distance. This leaves our visible universe finite.

If some alien was living in a non-expanding infinite universe, it could be possible to simulate our “finite” portion of the universe.

Passed the Turing test as administered by who?

How much does this thing cost though?

That is my entire point. Even if it comes down to money, the majority of small businesses are not buying robots to replace people in the near term. It’s going to be 20 years at least.

You underestimate how much people can be stuck in their ways. My grandmother still goes to the bank window to withdraw cash and has never used a computer in her life. There will be businesses that just don’t adopt new technology because they don’t want to and there will still be customers for them.

Of course in the long term that will happen. But you are saying 10 years and I am saying that is crazy, because those efficiencies will take a lot longer to develop than the technology will. Supply chains don’t just magically adapt overnight. We are still feeling the effects of COVID lockdowns years later.

My point was that it’s not going to be economically feasible. It will be technically feasible long before it is economically feasible, because labor is so cheap compared to very expensive, highly specialized machines.

Lots of jobs, even when they COULD be replaced by AI, still won’t be. We are, ironically, going to reach a point where you could have a robot that makes and serves fast food but it would actually be more expensive than hiring a minimum wage person to do it. Because wages are not increasing, but the cost of materials and maintenance of complex machines is.

It’s not exactly clear what the time frame will be. They might be right. Or not. Nobody really knows at this point.

I am in the camp of people that actually really likes their job and is kind of nervous for it disappearing because of AI. So I'm going to try to enjoy it while it lasts.

Because it’s not that great. It’s a parlor trick. It’s kind of helpful at reminding you which function to call in an API that you haven’t used in a while, but more than 1-2 lines of code and it has tons of errors you have to fix. Half the time it ends up being slower than programming manually because you have to really carefully read the code it generates to make sure it didn’t do something stupid.

I asked what was the rapid progress, he named one thing. I am pointing out how stupid it is to call one thing rapid progress. Thanks for your input, person who clearly didn't understand the exchange.

So one thing that was invented in 5 years. Cool cool cool. Very rapid progress, never had that happen before.

What rapid progress from 2016-2021?

>Programmers that can more efficiently write code and design LLM's will make better LLM's.

Wtf are you talking about. Programmers don't make better LLMs. Extremely specialized AI experts make better LLMs. You are making no sense.

Edit: Oh I think I have figured it out. You are writing these posts with a LLM. That is why everything you say seems like it is vaguely coherent but if you try to think about it for more than a minute you realize it is complete nonsense.

A matter of lots of time. Coding productivity is not the bottleneck for any industry at this point.

I think this post is going to age super poorly. You seem unrealistically optimistic, given the information we have. There have been great strides in some very specific areas of AI, and for sure it is going to change some things in the next few years, but your other implications are unfounded.

We have had GitHub copilot for a year now, which applies LLMs to programming, and nobody I know besides me has even heard of it, let alone use it for real programming. And I am in a CS department. We are nowhere near the elbow of the exponential curve yet 15 more years at least.

You are probably not thinking it through. Imagine if every time you wanted to upgrade to the newest iPhone you had to have invasive surgery. Now also remember that as we get closer to the singularity newer better technology is going to be coming out faster and faster. Wouldn’t you rather it just be a wearable item that you could swap easily?

There’s also the risk that your implant just stops being supported and then you have no working eyes.

I'm not sure there would be a big demand for implants or contacts. Why would you want it when you could get the same thing much less invasively with just glasses? The vast majority of people who qualify for LASIK, for instance, just keep wearing glasses because they don't want to have surgery on their eyes and glasses are completely fine.

You also have a lot more room to put processors, battery, etc. in glasses so could probably have a much better product.

And something we created gets to live on and spread throughout the galaxy. If we all die from nuclear holocaust we will have exterminated the only known intelligence in the universe.