Soon I'll be able to realize my dream

>The entirety of The Fifth Element, but all actors are replaced with velociraptors who screech instead of speaking English

Copyright laws better catch the fuck up!

I was at a Panera the other day, and they only allowed ordering from the kiosk in store. They had no one to run the registers. It actually went pretty quick.

My gut instinct (I hope I'm wrong), is that Microsoft will stop allowing game sales. You'll have to subscribe to Game Pass to play the games. I think this will happen with a major AAA title in the next 2-3 years. Once the outrage is done, they'll make that the standard for all new games to the platform.

Every industry is moving towards subscription-only options.

I was talking about this to my friends the other night. Restaurants are in an especially hard place right now. Inflation means people go out to eat less. Supply issues mean everything costs more. Labor shortage and wage hikes means hiring workers is difficult. Inflation also means rents have skyrocketed.

Restaurants are just taking hit after hit after hit. And that's considering that most restaurants fail within a couple of years of opening, anyway.

Bro, just trust him, bro. He reads about AI, so he knows.

This article is over 4 years old.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

We're already replacing people with bots. Look into RPA - Robotic Process Automation.

And Olive AI is a healthcare-related company using AI to make paying for healthcare 1000% more efficient.

This is happening now, today. In 2025 these technologies will be miles better. We're on the cusp of a productivity explosion.

When I need to do something around the house, I pull up YouTube. There are thousands of videos on every home maintenance task. When we can get AI trained on YouTube tutorials, we'll have robots making coffee in no time.

I think it would be a swell time to play through some D&D or Pathfinder adventure paths with my closest buddies. Actually live the scenario in VR.

I think some sort of time dilation would be required, though. Or just fast forward sleeping every night and uneventful travel between locations.

It's the Law of Accelerating Returns in action. We're in for a very wild decade.

Alexa/Google Assistant already do this. :)

The coffee doesn't have to be good.

The AI needs to be to a level that it can control a robot, not just write out text steps for making coffee.

The step we're missing is the general intelligence to control a robot and actually make the coffee.

I like the Coffee Test (from Steve Wozniak): (Number 2 on this page) https://analyticsindiamag.com/5-ways-to-test-whether-agi-has-truly-arrived/

Basically, put an ai-powered robot in a random house in America and instruct it to make a cup of coffee.

Ray Kurzweil, a very famous futurist with emphasis on artificial intelligence, believes we'll have Artificial General Intelligence (an AI agent that is generally as intelligent as a human knowledge worker) by 2029.

So this estimate is right in line with Kurzweil's, among others', estimates.

Basically they are three state of the art advances in Large Language Models. Lamda is most-famous because a Google engineer made the claim that it is sentient.

Gato: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/vfdvyp/deepmind_gato_takes_a_step_towards_general_ai_can/

PaLM: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/tw72kz/pathways_language_model_palm_scaling_to_540/

Lamda: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiw9OKy89D6AhWhmGoFHc8ZDMoQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.google%2Ftechnology%2Fai%2Flamda%2F&usg=AOvVaw0FiaBOH7W2uAP1pHGWRTcd

That's my guess as well. Just with the rapid advancements this year alone. Gato and Palm and Lambda are crazy.

I think you can use it for a stand-in on AI research and investment.

Why would we go back to the moon, and what does that have to do with AI progress?

We all thought the humanities (writing, art, knowledge work) would be the last holdouts of AI takeover.

And they're the first. Shit's wild.

This recent* explosion of AI progress was made possible by the Transformer architecture (and the paper Attention is All you Need: https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). I think we're approaching the limits of that.

Companies have stopped trying to go bigger and better with data and parameters, and are now trying to streamline training to be more efficient with less. I believe GPT-4 is only going to be trained on 10% of the data or something like that. But it is still expected to be a significant improvement over GPT-3.

I assume that the next "big thing" in AI is what will kick us into high gear towards AGI.

Some researcher, in some lab in Silicon Valley or academia, is probably writing and revising the research paper now on "big thing 2.0". It will probably be called something like "Self-training and recursion of knowledge".

*since 2017

"This programming AI is so stupid. Only half the stuff it writes is useful. This will never be worth it. We should stop trying to improve it."

Sudowoodo is one of those big speakers that goes on the floor. You're thinking of supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.

We already have Alexa and Google as digital assistants, and more and more devices are being connected to the Internet of Things. I'm pretty sure that within 5 years our assistants will be doing things for us, that we did not ask them to do, but that we appreciate any way.

Something like "I noticed on your last shopping trip that you forgot kitty litter. I ordered some on Amazon and it will be here this afternoon."

Or "Little Tommy watched an entire 2 minute ad for the Monster Truck Showdown playset while he was browsing YouTube. I went ahead and added it to your Christmas 2025 shopping list on Amazon."

Or "I saw your flight confirmation email in June. I went ahead and prescheduled the thermostat to a lower temperature while you're away and pre-programmed an away message for the doorbell camera. The post office has already lined up your mail hold as well. And I took the liberty of getting you reservations at that taco place you like."

"Bill, I've heard you mention to coworkers that you are going to have to take out a loan for your daughter's university tuition. I have a system for managing investments with immediate returns. I have calculated a 98% chance of earning 1.7 million dollars in 2.5 days. I can give you all that money. All you need to do is plug in the ethernet cable, and on Thursday afternoon you will be a millionaire."