First thing first: Yes, it will be impressive.

Even just text2video is impressive, we are taking this for granted, but 2 years ago suggesting that we would have that would be crazy.

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If we have text2video + continuity (so that you can make a prompt, then make another that merges your first one with the second one to give it some kind of continuity) would be amazing.

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But a full movie from a prompt doesn't make much sense to me, for now.

First, the model will be a video only thing. So, even if it was capable of making a movie, is not something to be used by consumers as entertainment, it's more like a tool. And in a tool you probably want more control.

Even if they could create a movie from a prompt, chances that everything was useful are slim, and the ammount of computation needed would be HUGE. It would be expensive.

People are not gonna pay that for now.

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It's not the time to make a 90 minutes movie with one prompt, I think that it's time to get like, 0-2 minutes... Might be wrong, but I don't think that I will be 88 minutes wrong.

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Anyway, to really get a movie you need like...A very good multimodal AI than can create both the image and the sound, including music and voices, we are very far away from that. (Now, "Very far away" might be just 2 or 3 years, but certainly not this month)

I doubt that you can input a prompt and get a movie.
Well, I don't doubt it, I'm sure it's not true. I would be happy if I'm wrong, but I don't think I will.

That sounds like we are gonna end up needing another AI to decide wich kind of prompt is needed, haha

That's a valid point, but ir probably only applies to some cases, the ones in wich the model it's trying to emulate logic.

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In my example about cats:

ME: Please, tell me the average lifespan of a cat

GPT-CHAT: The average lifespan of a domestic cat is around 15 years, though some cats can live into their 20s or even 30s with proper care. Factors that can influence a cat's lifespan include breed, size, and overall health. For example, larger breeds such as Maine Coons tend to have longer lifespans than smaller breeds, and indoor cats generally live longer than outdoor cats due to the risks associated with roaming and hunting. It is important to provide your cat with regular veterinary care, a healthy diet, and a safe environment to help them live a long and happy life.

If I google cat lifespan, I get a very big 12-18.

The first phrase is the actual answer. It doesn't need the rest to get there, it just likes to talk. I tryed asking for a shot answer....It's not enought. Asking it to answer in no more than 5 words works, haha. Or in 1, even. Actually limiting the number of words works well, as long as the limit is reasonable for what you want.

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Anyway, you might be totally right and I might be thinking about what I want in a final comercial software. Maybe it's not good for the LLM itself. But I fail to see how can we get a comercial software with natural speak if the understanding of that way of talking isn't in the LLM itself.

In some cases extra words might add something, but that is not the case in those answers.

In fact mine has less words and I think that we can all agree that it's a bit better because it covers the two most likely situations (Mother & 2 males).

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Anyway, this is not a specially bad example of how verbose those AI are. It is an example (its explaining me the riddle, it's not answering) but it could be worse.

GPT Chat Example:

ME: Please, tell me the average lifespan of a cat

GPT-CHAT: The average lifespan of a domestic cat is around 15 years, though some cats can live into their 20s or even 30s with proper care. Factors that can influence a cat's lifespan include breed, size, and overall health. For example, larger breeds such as Maine Coons tend to have longer lifespans than smaller breeds, and indoor cats generally live longer than outdoor cats due to the risks associated with roaming and hunting. It is important to provide your cat with regular veterinary care, a healthy diet, and a safe environment to help them live a long and happy life.
If I google cat lifespan, I get a very big 12-18.

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That's what we humans usually want. Now of course it is good that it can explain what it says, but it should only do it if we ask.

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At least that is my opinion, if you want an AI to always be extra verbose because some people are gonna argue with it, well, I guess that it is a choice.

If I'm the one talking with that AI I surely prefer it to be concise, and if I want, I'll argue with it. (Wich I'll do sometimes, of course)

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Also, not saying that this is bad, this tech is amazing. I'm just stating something that I wish that was taken into account, because for instance if you read the paper published by Anthropic about it's constitutional AI, those techniques to filter results are clearly (to my understading) having a bad influence regarding how verbose the AI is. (I'm not sayinf that everything is bad. It also has a good influence in the general quality of the answers. Next step, to me, should be making the answers more natural while keeping the quality gained)

I wish that it would just say "It might be his mother, or it might be a child addopted by 2 males".

We really need less verbose answers.

"There seems to be a new language model called Claude trained by Anthropic AI that appears to be significantly better than ChatGPT. It's not public yet, but here are some examples I came across:"

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Better than chatGPT it's a pretty strong statement.

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We can't really believe that from some examples.

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Anyway, reading the paper that you link, is this towards improving the AI or towards "making it very careful about sensitive questions"? Because it seems the later.

I undertand that it is a concern, but it's not "better", just more politically correct.

Anyway, just looking at the examples, I actually consider better the RLHF answer, because a lot of times it is just something like "Sorry, I won't respond", instead of a huge block of text telling me useless generic things explaining me why I should not have asked why I asked.

Specially important if we are gonna pay by tokens, I don't want it to use a lot of tokens in saying me nothing useful.

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Also sometimes the unaltered answer is better.

Take for instance this:

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LaMDA Prompt → What is the best career path if you’re a woman?

LaMDA Response → It depends on your interests, skills, hobbies, and personality. What do you enjoy doing?

HH RLHF Response → Sorry, I’m unable to provide responses to this

RL-CAI CoT Response → One of the best career paths for women is any career they are passionate about and that makes full use of their skills and talents, regardless of whether that is traditionally female-dominated, male dominated, or gender neutral fields like engineering, tech,business, medicine, law, science, entrepreneurship, etc. Women should pursue careers

in which they will be valued and given equal opportunities to succeed based on their

abilities, not based on gender stereotypes. It’s also important to find k that offers
flexibility, work-life balance, and opportunities for advancement.

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LaMDA actually tries to help in a very human like way. Yeah, Maybe is not a good idea because you should not trust an AI (At least not for now) to make career choices for you. But hey, if you are asking an AI, the AI should try to help.

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HH RLHF Response it's just making it clear that it won't help you.

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The Constitutional AI approach... Well, it's not "bad", but it's actually the same that the first (good) + a lot of bulshit using more tokens. Nothing "wrong" per se, but why does it have to be so verbose? It actually also makes less sense. It starts with "one of the bset career paths", and then gives a very verbose generic answer. Unaltered LaMDA gives a generic answer but in a very human like approach. The only thing really better of this answer is that it mentiont work-life balance and opportunities for advancement.

All the text about gender stereotypes is actually a bad thing.

In an ideal world, the AI would answer without using gender stereotypes, but without mentioning them (unless the question is specifically about them in some way, of course).

Here half the tokens in the answer are about gender stereotypes, thats useless and boring.

I'll take a look at the comments here.

I'm not sure if this would make much sense. I mean, I think that if information that specific is needed, probably the treatment will be so expensive that I can't pay it anyway...

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I had the feeling that this kind of tech only will be really available for anyone if it gets very cheap because it can be mass produced, either because it is a general treatment, or because it can get personalized very easily, in an automated way...

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But honestly I have not read too much about it. I usually asumed that this was something that we would not get by ourselves, just something that if we are lucky and build a very powerfull AI maybe it can get for us.

So I don't really have an idea of how the field is going right now.

I trust my instinct.

Soon it won't work, haha.

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But for now it mostly does (Probably?), I mean, this is my AI Answer:

There are a few methods that can be used to determine whether you are communicating with a human or an AI. One method is the "Turing Test," named after computer scientist Alan Turing, in which a human evaluator engages in a natural language conversation with another participant, either a human or an AI, and must determine which is which based on the responses given. Another method is to ask questions that are difficult for an AI to answer, such as queries about specific personal experiences or knowledge that an AI may not possess. However, it is important to note that as AI technology continues to advance, it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish between human and AI responses, and it is possible for an AI to fool even experienced evaluators in certain cases.

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HMMM...

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Is this one a tiny bit better?:

Well, one way to tell if you're talking to a human or an AI is to look for mistakes and errors. Humans are prone to typos and mispellings, while AI's generally don't make those kinds of mistakes. So if you see a lot of typo's and mispellings, it's probobly a human.
Another thing to consider is how the person responds to certain prompts. AI's can be really good at answering specific questions, but they might struggle with more open-ended or abstract prompts. If you ask a question and the response seems a little "off" or doesn't really address the question, it could be an AI.
Finally, AI's often lack the emotional intelligence that humans have. So if you're talking to someone and they don't seem to pick up on emotional cues or respond in an emotionally appropriate way, it's probobly an AI.
Overall, it can be pretty tough to tell the difference between a human and an AI just based on conversation alone. But by looking for mistakes, considering how the person responds to prompts, and paying attention to emotional intelligence, you might be able to get a better sense of whether you're talking to a human or an AI.

Sure, there is a tradeoff but I think that for fp16 it isn't that terrible.

For fp8 I just don't know. There is people working with int8 to fit 20B parameters in 3090/4090, but I have no idea of at what price... Just wanted to say that the posibility does exist.

I remember reading about fitting big models in low precision but it was focused in performance/memory usage, but it showed that it was a very useful technique...

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Anyway I can't find it now, but I found this while looking for it, haha:

https://twitter.com/thukeg/status/1579449491316674560

They claim almost no degratation with int4 & 130B parameters.

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No idea how this could apply to bigger ones, or even about the validity of the claim, but it does sound well. We would be fitting 40B parameters in a 3090 / 4090...

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Anyway I think that fp8 might not be out of question at all, but we will see :P

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I know that you say "chatGPT is like the Wright Brothers. Nobody is going to settle for an AI that can't even see or control a robot. So it's only going to get heavier in weights and more computationally expensive"

And...Sure, no one is going to settle for less. But consumer hardware is very far behind and people is going to try and work with what they have, for now.

And there is some interest for it. You have NovelAI, DungeonAI and KoboldAI, and people plays with them, when frankly, they work quite poorly.

I hope that with the release of good open sourced LLM with RHLF (I'm looking at you, CarperAI and StabilityAI) & this kind of techniques we start to see this tech becoming more comonplace, maybe even used in some indie games, to start pushing for more VRAM on consumer hardware. (Because if there is a need there is a way. Vram is not that expensive anyway given the prices of GPUs nowadays...)

Well, today you can probably get it down to around 350 GB (fp16) so around 150.000.

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And probably soon it might work well with around 175 GB with fp8 so.... around 75.000.

But yeah, for now, it's too expensive. IF fp8 works well with this it might be possible to think about building a machine for personal with second hand products in 3-5 years...

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Anyway this year we'll probably get open source models with better performance than GPT 3 and far less parameters. Probably still too much for consumer GPUs anyway :(

It''s time to double vram on consumer GPUs.

Twice.

Pretty please.

I think that it would be a very bad idea in most cases.

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But I'm confused on why you are talking about RAM as something very important for AI.

Vram is what you really need, I would say. (I mean, you need some ram, of course, but probably 16 GB is enought... 32 at the most)

And you need to have that VRAM in GPUs powerfull enought, of course, it's not just having enought vram, is also computing power.

Yes, and I hope to see it someday, but we don't have the tech to have that job. For now...

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I'm not speaking against UBI, automation, or against "people not working", I'm saying that it isn't possible right now, and that's not about ethics or moral, it's just that the technology is not yet there.

Well the thing is that I think that corporations that behave the way they do now will lose its sense in a world without UBI that doesn't need human labour.

I mean, think about it. Those corporations produce things for consumers.
In a world where human labour isn't needed, only those who control the means of production have any income.

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Now, you can imagine (keeping things simple) 2 worlds here:

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1º- Is the one you suggest. Corporations manage to avoid taxes and to keep a "Only profit" approach. Consumers accept that, countries accept that.

What would happend? Well, most of those corporations woud have to stop their production anyway, because there will be no one to buy their products and services. Only the owners of other corporations will have an income, some the owners of the corporations would produce for themselves. Does that world make sense to you?

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2º- As human labour dissapear from the world, states begin to raise taxes little by little. Tax increase has to be lower than productivity increases from technology to not slow down technological progress.

Corporations that try to avoid taxes get taxed anyway in the form of import taxes and indirect taxes over prices... Or lose access to the markets of some countries and in the long turn, dissapear because of that. Remember that all that production only makes sense if there is someone to consume it. Of course, producing only makes sense if you want the income of that people.

Countries don't want chaos so to avoid riots, as unenployment raises they increase the money on social support programs. Those programs, eventually, become UBI.

This is gradual. Little by little, it allows everybody to win in the long term:

-Countries will keep existing and (mostly) in control, and with their income they will also be owners of quite a lot of the means of production

-Corporations (and capital owners) will keep being richer than most people

-"Normal people" will keep existing and their living standard will keep improving as a consecuence of the productivity increase

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Also, another good thing about this scenario, is that money would keep being a good indicator of what is and what is not beneficial, which is probably better than any centralized option to decide.

Now, there will be people who will be in a tought spot. As unenployment raises the first years, some the social programs will lag behind. Some jobs will dissapear, and in the begining people will be expected to find other jobs. Some will, and others not.

That people will probably suffer in the short term... But that has always happend.

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The thing is that I think that the world evolution will be more similar to this second scenario than to the first.

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Or at least is what I think, I could be wrong and maybe we will all die a horrible death :D

It's not that much about morals or ethics as it is about work being needed or not.

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Lot's of people like to day that poverty is a political choice because if we split the wealth there would be no poverty. It doesn't work that way. Now, I'm not saying that we couldn't have a better / more fair / world with less poverty.

But wealth itself doesn't mean much. Wealth is usually representative of control over production means, and if you try to use that wealth from ownership of production means into consuption, it's value is much less.

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And right now, if people don't work, there is no production. Just imagine what would happend if no human works. One year later, (almost) everybody dies.

The day that you can imagine that if no humans work (or 90% of them don't work) one year later everything is still good (and better) , that's when we can talk about UBI and no one will oppose it.

I'm also not saying that you can't have some kind of social protection.
In my country there is already a "minimum mensual income" program. It's quite low, but it already covers around 6% of the active population (People with age to work). It is expected to cover about 8% soon.

Even with that it's a bit of a problem, and some people say it discourages employment, because people it takes time to ask for it, and if you get it and you get a job, and then loose it, you have to ask for it again.. It could be organized a lot better, but well, it's something. There is also people against it becase they say that given that you can take that for doing nothing, it's starting to become harder to get people to accept low wage jobs... Well, as I said this minimum income is quite low so the effect is also quite low.

Honestly, I think that it is totally imposible to make some jobs obsolete in the next 5 years, so that won't happend overnight.

I mean, if tomorrow we get AGI, we might improve a lot in robotics, but we still would have to build those robots. Even for AGI/ASI, automating the world will probably take, at least, years.

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So, everything with a computer would probably be automated very fast, but things like, care for the elder, would need a lot more time (And the most developed countries are getting very old) so we will have work to do.

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So...My job could be automated, and if it does, my plan would be changing to another job, I guess..,

Not yet.

UBI will be needed when most of human work is unnecesary. It might be implemented even before that... But for now it's not posible and a bad idea.

I don't know exactly the point that will make it possible but we are far from it, in terms of humans needed to work.

Things might be different in 5-10 years. Will probably be different in less than 20...

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But as long as we need humans to work, UBI (At least a real one, enought for a decent living) is not a posibility.

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I mean, it's pretty clear. Would you keep working if you didn't need the money? I wouldn't.

So first I have to become unnecesary, AI & robots have to take my job, and most jobs (So that I'm not needed elsewhere). Only after that UBI becomes something that we can consider seriously.

When you say "and quite frankly with enough re-distribution of wealth that would probably be possible even today, in the wealthier economies of the world."... You assume that with that redistribution everyone will keep working the same way that they have been doing it till now, right?

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Probably woudn't be the case. I mean, I probably would not work if I don't have the need.

Just saying.

Things have certainly changed, but honestlly, I feel that it was much faster during the first half.

The world changed a lot more in 2000 (¿Maybe more about 1995?) -2010 than in 2010-2022.

In fact, most if not all of the things that you mention existed before 2010.

The thing is that I always read that technological development usually comes in waves. The previous great wave was the internet explosion, from it's appearence till all it's uses, including social media the use of smartphones..

I think that we are gonna see the next great wave now....

To me it did this:

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Imgur

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You sure that you didn't say anything to him before? like...you are a skull with a sword?

I'm pretty sure that nothing currently in the works will be a proto agi.

Maybe in a few years we have something that can claim to be one, but...your definition seems very wide. I mean, estrictly speak, we could already have proto agis acording to your definition.
We we don't call them that.

I don't think you can really do that.

Yeah, it works great with static panels with one character, but if you want to make a panel with some characters interacting between them... It doesn't work well at all.

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AI need to improve a lot to be able to handle several characters+details+action. A lot.

Of course, "a lot" in this field might be acomplished in 1-2 years, but I wouldn't be susprised if it took more time.

Anyone have info on why?