ah yes...movies will be at least 10 years away...yeeesssss

>Are they tho?

yes objectively they are? this year alone should be proof enough of that. :P

the progress would have been made whether somebody posted it on this sub or not...its not like us seeing/talking about it changes the objective fact that progress is speeding up very quickly.

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>even ignoring that regular chips are about to hit their limit and that quantum computers are really reliable right now

source on this? the current version of chips (flat and dense) are probably reaching their limits yes...but you can make those chips 3d...they don't have to stay flat. not to mention photonic computing...or even just improving the software to better use the available hardware (like matrix multiplication improvement!)

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>innovation speeds up and might as well slow down its not predictable at al

Innovation historically happens in S curves, Brief periods of rapid progress, usually followed by a period of little progress, until we hit the next s curve ad infinitum...

BUT while there may be lulls between the S curves that doesn't mean progress is slowing down in aggregate, its quite the opposite, the time between S curves are getting shorter, and the amount of progress we are seeing is also increasing. in essence the S is slowly but surely turning into a straight up line over time (exponential one might say? ;) )

This year heralded the explosion of transformer models, that's literally an S curve development right there...what's important though is that this S curve could be the last.

if we keep building better AI it could be the key to just keep flying up the S curve till we reach the point where all technology is developed. all it takes is a good enough AI (whether it be AGI or ASI ;P pick your poison)

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>that’s why majority of AI researchers don’t buy into that “exponential growth” thing

HUH?! WHO?! ima need source on this too...Gary Marcus maybe?

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>Ray Kurzweil is scared of deaths and wants singularity and AGI fast to save him from death

ME TOO. but joking aside it doesn't matter if that's the reason why or not...just look around it progress and think ahead a few years...the writing's on the wall here...shits about to get crazy. crazy...er

you don't have to be a researcher to see how fast things are currently going. its also a safe bet that this trend will only get faster with ever improving AI in the mix...

no even 2026 may still be thinking too linearly...there's a high chance IMO that this is going to blow up much faster than we can imagine.

all departments at my grocery store are already running low on staff...nobody seems to want to apply...I work in the meat and seafood area, and a month or two ago we had enough employs to manage the place, but they left...now we are down to a skeleton crew, its getting kinda bad already...

who lacks language?

haha I'm just pointing out what I'm seeing, no feelings involved at all :)

I cant wait to come back to this post in less than a year to remind you how right I was ;) see you then!

just so we are clear, I said one year MAX as in it's probably going to happen in less than a year from now.

I never said "oh it will happen eventually". I was referring to pace of change alone for transformational technology development, specifically AI.

yeah one year is a really short time period, I KNOW. that's what I keep reminding you that THIS YEAR WAS INSANE.

it will continue to get more and more insane over time.

that's what leads me to believe it will happen far faster than any realize. look at this year and assume the pace of development stays the same...we are in for a wild ride.

I don't need to know EXACTLY when or what is going to happen, only that pace of change has increased in will likely continue to increase over time due to, in large part, AI.

we are already working on what's needed to generate long form coherent generated videos. it is literally around the corner, and you don't have to be a psychic to see that it will not take long to happen.

I saw it when generated images first came out and I still see it now...we are about to fall off a cliff of technological change, whether you think its true or not is irrelevant to me :P

what will happen will happen.

but maybe you are right tho...this year so far has totally not been nuts, its absolutelyyy going to slow down...sure.

the whole point of this subreddit is to talk about and speculate upon the future.

I've seen this happen at least 3 or 4 times already THIS YEAR.

all I'm doing is stating what will most likely happen. its not my fault you read into it any more than that.

There are things we don't know about, you shouldn't assume you know everything that's to come.

Its a good way to get blind sided. for example, did you know about gato? did you know about palm? or minerva? or how about stable diffusion? or cog video? or the meta one? or the google video model? why didn't you warn us just before they came out?!?!

You have no idea what they got in the lab that's unreleased/under NDA.

if you think you know exactly what's coming then where are your exact predictions on things to come?

exactly.

well I guess you will be wrong then.

I've seen it several times this year. The "This wont happen for YEARS!!" take, and guess what? its been wrong a lot recently.

but yeah man you're right...I'm sure this wont age like fine milk in a few months...

haha remember at the start of this year when dalle-2 came out and people were all speculating on when text to video would come out? many said YEARS. it wont take that long...

I give it a year MAX.

the crazy train has just started chuggin people

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Edit: haha those people downvoted me too...doesn't make me less wrong tho ;)

>If you think agi 2022 your iq is probably below average

Ironic