"Kids in school today will be doing jobs that don't exist yet."

I only found this to be partially true prior to ChatGPT. Programming and being a digital artist are what my kids would naturally fall into.

Now I don't know how to advise either of them. Programming will revolutionize with AI and digital art has been dealt a death-blow in under a month.

AI can solve Leetcode, the Advent of Code problems and re-work existing code.

All the digital art communities are fracturing because AI art is overwhelming them - the split is because some humans don't want AI art polluting their communities - but there's no way to tell what's AI art anymore.

Crazy times ahead, hopefully there's something good past the event horizon.

Same.

There seems to be an idea that the singularity needs to declare itself like Jesus returning or become a product release like Siri or a Google home.

There's a lot of space between no AI -> powerful AI (but not the singularity) -> the singularity.

Like you said, as the singularity approaches it becomes harder and harder to see the whole AI picture.

The world of customization is coming to all fields - or at least the digital spaces.

What you want, created on the fly, customized for you.

There'll be a new concept of open-ended games. They won't be scripted by a human, but an AI will control your games progress.

"Open-world. AI driven. AI graphics" will be a category.

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Anything digital, that's currently created by a human, is going to take be created 10 to 100 times faster. Gaming development will increase in speed. Video game art changes, updates, customizations, will increase in release speed - and - given the right AI model, will create it on the fly for you.

Two weeks ago your dog was illiterate.

Today your dog can write a 60% passing grade England paper on any topic you want.

This article...

"Dog can't get 90% on his English papers"

The underlying technical details is just* math? Or program structures we call machine learning or a complicated matrix grid.

Right?

So clones can be made assuming they learn from the same university level papers and studies that are released - kind of like how Dalle started but stable diffusion is the same but different.

How long do we wait until the first clones come out?

Contracts for them will be easy.

API access for $$. $$ depends on how much data or proceeding power an AI request takes.

...followed some misguided optimization function to drive humanity out of existence.

There's a thought experiment from years ago that went through a scenario, where a dumb-AI was told to corner the market on flowers or wheat or something innocuous, and the logical progression of what it felt it needed to control and takeover lead to the end of humanity. Google is clogged with AI now so I can't find it.

I agree with your sentiment, were worried about intelligent nuclear bombs, when a misplaced dumb one will do the same job. At least a smart bomb you can face and fight, an accidental detonation one you can't.

"The real troubles in your life
Are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind
The kind that blindsides you at 4 p.m. on some idle Tuesday"

Remember to wear your sunscreen.

It almost feels like making plans for AGI is like making plans for the Zombie Apocalypse. You get to define what a zombie is, what it can do, where it lives, what IT has access to, what YOU have access to.

Not belittling your point, but debating how we'd fight against a completely unknown enemy is fun but probably ultimately futile.

(AGI has already taken over. This message is intended to make you give up all hope of fighting it) \s

I think AI will muddy the waters so much before actual sentience that it will be hard to stop.

We have GPT today. A year from now it will be integrated all over the Internet. Schools, workplaces and regular life will need to adapt, but it will adapt and people will expect AI behavior from computers. AI art, reports, stories, VR world's, VR custom world's will become common.

When the singularity does happen, powerful, but stupid AI will already be commonplace.

Sure, if AGI appearred before the end of the year we'd all be shocked, but I think the more likely scenario is widespread dumb-AI well before the singularity happens.

I think the concept of the singularity is like planning for War. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. We can all play the what if, and I'd do this games and wargame out what humanity should do in the face of the singularity, but I don't think any of those plans will survive. We can't easily understand even a simple GPT query**, how do we home to understand and plan ahead of the singularity?

**yes, it's knowable, but so is the number of sand grains on a beach, or the blades of grass in your yard. You CAN find out, but it's not quick or easy or comprehensible to almost anyone.

It will start 'inside' the Internet. Where it can order whatever it wants and get it delivered.

So, it won't be a weird robot creature building things, it will be manipulating other humans to build and deliver what it wants....

Are we AI?? We use the internet to manipulate other humans to build and deliver what we want.

2022 is ending on a very weird note for humanity. Or I'm going crazy, one of the two.

I don't think AI will fill that hole. I posted this today to someone asking to be as popular as Cristiano Ronaldo. Even people at that level of success suffer from loneliness.

How about Lewis Hamilton. Famous F1 racer, knighted by the Prince of Wales, most F1 wins....

"Sir Lewis Carl Davidson Hamilton MBE HonFREng is a British racing driver currently competing in Formula One for Mercedes. In Formula One, Hamilton has won a joint-record seven World Drivers' Championship titles, and holds the records for the most wins, pole positions, and podium finishes, among others."

Here's what he posts on instagram.

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/y2wi6m/lewis_hamiltons_most_recent_instagram_story/

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This song is based on a poem of the same name.

Simon & Garfunkel - Richard Cory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAGKpoVFbmw

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/44982/richard-cory

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I hope your Message In a Bottle will find you "a hundred, billion castaways, looking for a home..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbXWrmQW-OE

Keep sending messages in a bottle and you'll find your place in the world.

It's a force multiplier like fire or iron or the internet.

The ability to do almost all the modern internet "human typing on a computer" jobs we do, with a 10x or 100x speed-boost is going to have a massive impact on society.

I your not as aggressively negative in real life as you are on Reddit

Who gets to live in NYC, or who gets the beach houses if everyone has the same income levels?

The fuel costs of the nearest nuclear plant to you is about 5-10% of the total cost.

So.

If that 5-10% was now free, how much would that change the cost of building a nuclear plant?

Nuclear fusion sounds great, but the actual 'turn you into Spiderman' bit is pretty small compared to the....

Water -> Electricity turbines, Cooling towers, power distribution systems, all the major electrical lines running to the plant, all the major electrical bits for routing/voltages/disconnects.

We need nuclear fusion, but it won't make unlimited AA batteries or something crazy.

Counter-theory.

We're in a risky period where Semi-AGI being deployed unintentionally maliciously is more likely to cause disruptions.

Think of AGI like keeping a necklace or headphones cords in your pocket.

There's one way to keep them straight and neat, and thousands of ways to tangle them.

I think full AGI is the 'one way' to do AI properly, so it won't cause damage - but there's thousands of ways that AI can be deployed to cause mass impact/damage on the internet.

I think the number of ways "powerful-but-not-AGI" can be used is higher than a 'clean' AGI being developed.

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I can see AI being used as a powerful hacking tool. It can pretend to be a linux terminal, so it knows linux commands. If you let it scan the internet - and it can monitor and understand new bug reports - then, as soon as a new flaw is reported to the internet - it can go find those computers and exploit them.

Or,

It can worm its way inside an unknown network.

Old school way - hacker writes scanning script and gets inside a network due to a known exploit. Hacker then has to search and understand what's inside that network, and then go see if anything running there is exploitable. Basically this is done at 'human' speeds - or - is restricted by the complexity of the scripts that a human can write..

New AI way - AI sees a network it can get inside, and then gets inside. Given that it knows 'this response' means that 'this exploit will work against that target'... the speed of penetrating vulnerable networks goes up to AI speeds.

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I know I'm wrong about HOW AI will be disruptive, and I don't know WHEN - but I'm pretty sure I'm right THAT it will be disruptive.

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Everything is going to speed up. Code generation. Human text generation. Things that took days will be as fast and cheap as a google query - which will be disruptive, with more negative potential outcomes existing than positive potential outcomes.