JeromePowellAdmirer

JeromePowellAdmirer t1_j9prlw5 wrote

Beware of the user trying to use month-over-month rent data to "disprove" this, a one month sample is extremely noisy.

Not to mention New Rochelle is the one place in Westchester that builds the most! The rest of Westchester is terrible, but New Rochelle actually builds quite a bit of housing.

There's also a composition effect going on here.

The average rent is obviously going to go up if more of the sample consists of new units. But that doesn't say anything about what the old units are priced at!

Example:

Before building: 2000 new units at $3500, 2000 old units at $1650

After building: 3000 new units at $3500, 2000 old units at $1650

Average rents are higher after the construction, but no one actually saw a change in rent. The changes in rent are driven by NYC not building enough and people moving in from there, not the new construction itself, which only raises average rents through composition.

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JeromePowellAdmirer t1_j9pqvsl wrote

I stopped reading as soon as they said "monthly rent change." That's such a noisy data set as to have absolutely zero relevance to the topic at hand. It takes a good 3-5 years to construct multifamily housing and the effects should be measured over a similar time span! They should also be measured on a metro area level, not a city level. Plus furthermore the Covid/remote work shock throws all the data out of whack.

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JeromePowellAdmirer t1_j9i2xhr wrote

Have you considered that what Jersey City is building is not enough to serve a metro of 20 million people? And yes, that is the market for Jersey City housing, not the 290k already here.

No one on the New York side is building anywhere close to enough. All that demand gets added on to Jersey City. Nothing Jersey City can do to fix it. New York has to fix it. If Jersey City stopped building, people would simply bid up the old houses, as happened in San Francisco and most of Manhattan.

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JeromePowellAdmirer t1_j8y71ba wrote

A) It's inaccurate to claim every high rise resident is disconnected. High rise buildings foster their own sense of community. Plenty of NYCHA buildings are high rise. Vienna has high rise social housing buildings (Wohnpark Alt-Erlaa). All high rise residents also need to shop and walk around in the neighborhood.

B) Mid rise is no longer enough to create high density in this big an urban area. This is because of parking regulations and demand among developers to cram in more parking. Once upon a time, mid rise was enough to create density because car-free lifestyles were encouraged, but they are no longer encouraged, and as such you need as much height as possible to make up for the land wasted on parking. I too would support multiple mid-rises adding up to the same number of units, but bank lenders would throw a fit over the lack of parking. Your ire should be targeted at banks who refuse to fund anything but traditional projects

C) This will generate quite a bit of property tax revenue to fund improvements to the area while lowering rents vs. the status quo by ensuring the residents who would live there don't bid up older more affordable housing instead.

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JeromePowellAdmirer t1_j6iaccf wrote

This the most Karen comment I've ever read. I'm way more scared getting into some beat up taxi than a modern Uber/Lyft with a digital location record and location sharing and driver's name. How about you stop worrying about your neighbor's parenting decisions. I know I'd be annoyed if I couldn't even see my daughter come home every day without someone yelling from across the street about how bad a parent I am.

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JeromePowellAdmirer t1_j5mvz4v wrote

What is "capital efficient affordable housing". Do you have a way of building housing for 300k per unit in the middle of NYC? I suggest you go to a bank and get some capital to make it a reality if you do, because you would become a millionaire very quickly.

By the way if you don't build luxury housing the rich people who would live in it don't just disappear. They come to your landlord, make a high offer for your unit, and gut renovate it. If "don't build and the rich won't exist" theory was true, San Francisco's outer districts would have very cheap rents.

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