Neurogence

Neurogence t1_j757kr4 wrote

Reply to comment by Pavvl___ in Possible first look at GPT-4 by tk854

If the rumors aren't fake, Google will be adding a chatbot to their front page very soon. But I too will ditch Google if Bing adds GPT4. At least until Google releases lambda on their frontpage.

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Neurogence t1_j757fn0 wrote

So not all rumors are fake. People were saying that semafor article was garbage.

This is interesting so far but not groundbreaking yet. I'm hoping the rumor that GPT4 can code entire programs also is not fake.

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Neurogence t1_j31sof6 wrote

Your error and a lot of people's error is a misunderstanding of intelligence. It takes intelligence to land a plane. Yet, if a computer does it, people can still call the computer dumb because it has no human intelligence. As long as the computer can solve problems, I don't care if it's not actually intelligent.

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Neurogence OP t1_j1q3gc5 wrote

If you want more hype, check out this tweet by this dude, idk who he is but he is adding fuel to the hype train:

>GPT4 will be out soon and will probably cause a similar economic shock to one from Covid. Instant distribution with nearly instant adoption and nearly instant productivity increase for hundreds of millions of knowledge workers. Brace yourselves, 2023 is coming

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/Nick_Davidov

Frankly, I think he might be delusional lol, but I love the hype and hopefully he is at least half right.

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Neurogence OP t1_iy3dcza wrote

I guess my error is my inclination to try to apply Moore's law to every type of technology. It does seem that things progress very slowly for tech that involves physical hardware. Software is easy but progress in tech where there's physical hardware involve can be frustratingly slow.

I guess it's kinda similar to how smartphones have not changed much at all since 2007. At this point it would not even be surprising if people are still using smartphones in the 2030s. Seems it's mostly software where most of the advancement is taking place.

People like Kurzweil imagine we will have Nanobots in our brains by the 2030s to replace smartphones but that involves serious hardware that we have no idea how to create.

Our best hope for a hard takeoff is AGI.

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Neurogence OP t1_iy3cbd5 wrote

Wow, crazy. I was a toddler in the 90's so I don't remember this, but wow.

I do believe in exponential progress but I do think that a lot of technologies are progressing much slower than they could be due to lack of investment and research.

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Neurogence OP t1_iy2x9iz wrote

A lot of us enthusiasts were using what we call the "DK1" back in 2012. 10 years later, the quest 2 is an improvement from it, but given 10 years, not drastic at all.

Hopefully this does not happen. But imagine that the dalle 2 you're using now; imagine if 10 years later, it just produces better images and basic animations, you'd be pretty disappointed right? This is how a lot of us feel about the difference between DK1 and Quest 2.

10 years is a very long time.

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