Flip it around. It saves the lives of, say a group of 11 people, by sacrificing 1.

This would translate to an extra 7.2 years (assuming the average lifespan is 80) if it worked in humans, which is something

We already have gene therapies for numerous genetic disorders, however I'm not sure when the other 2 will happen

There is an ai that can perform over 600 tasks, most of them at or exceeding human level.

I love the enthusiasm and progress is good, but please try to separate the hype from reality. LEV is not going to happen in the next 20 years like a lot of people here claim. We are decades and decades away from even having treatments for aging, let alone curing it or reaching LEV.

RemindMe! 1 year

My predictions for 2023

​

Russia / Ukraine war ends when Putin is ousted in a military coup. The new president calls off the war and restores ties with the west.

GPT-4 is released and is a significant advancement

advancements will continue to be made in gene editing, fusion, stem cell research, aging research, etc

the Iran protests die down and there is no regime change in Iran

8k TVs, monitors, etc go down in price, as well as OLED, QLED, etc

% of energy from renewable sources globally continues to increase, % from non renewables decreases

lab grown meat becomes more mainstream, products made with lab grown / fermented / cow free milk enter the market, advancements are made in lab grown wood, leather, organs, etc

we will continue to read about ‘breakthroughs’ in various fields, most of which we will never hear about ever again (for various reasons such as the article being hype and / or fabricated, working out initially but failing in further trials / testing, etc) but some will be genuine breakthroughs and will represent an advancement in that field

2023 is warmer on average than 2022

Finland and Sweden join NATO by the end of 2023. There is a coup in Belarus, Lukashenko is ousted, and the new govt. is pro western (as most of the population of Belarus is anti Lukashenko and pro west) and they apply to join NATO

wow shock you get downvoted for stating facts

By the time generational ships are a thing we probably would have cured aging and / or developed wormhole generators / warp drives so we wouldnt need the ships.

I really hope this goes somewhere

That’s funny tbh, implying that Christians Atheists and Muslims hate eachother and a beer has the power to bring them together. Takes a few minutes to get tho

They've been talking about nanobots since the 2000s and it still hasn't materialized. Same with cancer, diabetes etc. We keep hearing about "miracle cures" and yet nothing seems to come of it.

downvote me all you want but it wont make it any less true :)

Claiming to have working reliable nanobots is up there with claiming to have the cure for cancer, paralysis, alzheimers, diabetes etc. Also its in mice which doesn't translate to humans a lot of the time

>I just don’t agree with the „holier than thou“ attitude (anymore). He is not presenting any „facts“ except „I know cause I am a scientist“ and „I believe“ while criticising people for doing the same - and that is BAD social behavior. And bad discussion tactics.

>And also he leaves out all those posts and comments that provide critical discussion and sources.

Yh that is bad discussion tactics, he should be presenting and listening to evidence to support his arguments.

OP's view is at least more realistic than what a lot of people in this sub claim (that we are gonna have AGI in 6 years or less, that the singularity is happening by 2045 (i agree we can't know but it's probably not happening by then).). the majority of scientists also agree with him and while I would like to believe that OP is being too pessimistic, he does seem to be more grounded in reality than a lot of people on here.

before downvoting me, please read the whole post

Im glad someone in this sub is being realistic. We are decades and decades from AGI, curing aging / treatments for aging, stem cell treatments, growing organs etc. And yet this sub wants to believe that we’re gonna have AGI in just over 6 years.

and before I get downvoted, I understand that there has been a lot of progress in ai and other fields this year, and I'm not saying there hasn't been. I also understand where you guys are coming from with the exponential growth argument. however, a lot of if not most scientists say that all these technologies are decades away. I would say people in their 30s will have access to at least some of these in their mid 70s to 80s, and everyone 45 and up will likely die before these technologies come out. I get that you guys don't want to believe or hear that, but I'm simply being realistic. If you believe I'm being too pessimistic and / or have evidence showing these technologies will come out sooner, I would love to hear it.

Despite what my flair says I wouldn't be surprised if it takes 50 years

I see what ur saying

But wont this just add more emissions to the atmosphere?

Is this a good idea? We should be decreasing our emissions…

yep theyve been promising cures for all sorts of diseases for the past 15 years

“Pessimistically agi in 3 years”? Wtf? Is this sub some sort of cult?

People born today or even 5 maybe 10 years ago will probably never put gas into a car or drive a gas powered car. In fact i would say teenagers today probably won’t do those things

>we are truly on the cusp of a new era

I hope so

and yes it will be expensive but even if it costs like $100k a dose at least it exists

Lab grown meat is already being served in restaurants in Singapore so i based my prediction off of that, however if lab grown meat dosen't explode in 2023 i won't be too surprised. Also there is a huge lab grown meat facility being built in the US. And ur right about the resistence thing a lot of ppl don't like the idea of GMOs / lab grown products and i have a family member that thinks lab grown anything is "disgusting" and "unnatural".

yh i get rly frustrated when i see these "breakthroughs" like "high school student invents x that will transform society" or "scientists cure (insert currently incurable ailment) and it could cost $000000000.1 a dose" that we hear about every few years that is obviously hype and / or fake. I literally once saw an article that said "teenager invents cold fusion reactor for $15" like if that was true it would be global front page news u wouldnt need to go on some random ass website with 6 views to know about it. However there are some genuine breakthroughs such as the breakthrough in fusion that was announced by US scientists a few days ago.

im hoping there will be breakthroughs in stem cell treatments (several of them are in clinical trails but afaik none have been approved or used in hospitals) and lab grown organs (we already know how to lab grow meat so it shouldn't be too hard to use that knowledge to grow organs) also im excited to see how ai develops as it seems to be advancing very quickly