My opinion is the same as it was in 2020, the average personal computer in the year 2030 will be as powerful as the high-end of 2020, meaning RTX 3090, Ryzen 5950X and 32 GB of RAM. So things will certainly move forward, but not by a huge amount. Don't expect miracles.

I can also add that AI accelerators (ASICs) are going to play a role to an extent (even for DLSS etc.).

1. Smartphone gaming is going to be the most popular, with touchscreen controls and predatory microtransactions. Smartphones will get better better overall and foldable.
2. The base target hardware will be smartphones, cheap laptops, Switch 2 (possibly 10x Switch 1) and Xbox Series S (at least not One). So don't expect anything too amazing.
3. Most people will use 8, 12 or 16 core CPUs (Switch 2 will have 8). 2 cores will be completely extinct (kinda like single core today) and 4 cores will be used only by very poor people. New cores will be 2.5x faster than the newest ones today. 3D cache will be a normal thing.
4. Even poor people will be able to afford Xbox Series S or discless PS5, because of lowered prices and higher minimum wages. No one will be using 8th gen consoles, because all games from that gen will be playable on the 9th and 10th gen consoles.
5. There will be 10th gen consoles like for example PlayStation 6, but the majority will still use 9th gen. 10th gen consoles will use 12 or 16 core CPUs with 3D cache. They're going to be pretty powerful by 2022 standards, but not that amazing by high-end 2030 PC standards.
6. Highest-end gaming video cards will cost $2999 (only $500 more than Titan RTX). $249 graphics card will be as good as RTX 4090 while consuming much less energy.
7. RAM will be a quarter of current price. SSDs will be ⅛ of current price.
8. VR will be less niche than today, but still rather niche. There is going to be a slow, but steady growth in PC VR userbase.
9. Mainstream Oculus Quest will have 1080 Ti performance, eye and face tracking.
10. Haptic devices for VR will be much cheaper than today (when they are extremely expensive), but still too expensive for mainstream use.
11. Graphics are going to greatly improve thanks to i.e. Unreal Engine 5.
12. People will game on (foldable) smartphones, laptops, desktop PCs and consoles. VR (or AR) won't be very popular (yet).
13. There will be AR glasses games, but they won't be widely adopted.
14. Overall, an average personal computer in 2030 will be about 5x faster with 4x more memory than in 2022.
15. There will be some experimental (probably single-player) games with NPCs using actual AI that is able to talk with the player in a convincing way, but there won't be many of them. At best there might be 1 MMO that uses actually intelligent, adaptable AIs for controlling at least some of the NPCs.
16. AI models will aid with programming and graphics making for games. So that most work will be done by AI running on powerful servers. Therefore, making games at a constant size will be getting cheaper and easier every year. Indie games are going to be larger and more advanced than today, without being more expensive or harder to create.
17. Size of gaming population will grow.
18. Most of the popular games will still unfortunately focus on killing.

Here's the chart you are looking for: https://i.postimg.cc/25ZV1Fjp/image.png

What needs to change later in the 21st century, is the view that everyone should work or go to school. It's going to be enough that 5% of people work, because of robots and AI. These resolute people will be extra rewarded, more than the average person who doesn't work. But it's too early to quit working already in 2022. Let's wait for the 2040s, but we need to prepare ourselves mentally today.

I'm just hoping that these technologies will reduce human suffering, because there is an immense amount of it in the world. That's the most important issue. That's also why religions are still so popular. The very bad outcome would be if only a small group of people profited from all of this.

I can understand them. My favourite artists have declared that they aren't going to complain or fight against it, I wrote about this with one of them privately and he wrote that it's a part of natural progress and he finds it fun. I personally still much prefer human art. What I certainly dislike are people who upload too much of it. A human artist uploads 2 per month. An AI artist uploads 2 per day - that's the difference. Search, filtering and recommendation basically use algorithms from the 1990s, while AI art is miles ahead. Weird order of things. But I don't think it's stolen art, AI learns like a human learns, on someone else's art. No human ever could paint very well without seeing other people's paintings and learning on them.

No, it doesn't suddenly get vertical. Exponential growth is for example 5% a year, every year.

Certainly post 2040. Currently I see VR and AR developing slowly.

Don't be overly optimistic though. I am optimistic, but I don't expect crazy advanced stuff very soon. And we haven't been progressing linearly to 2022, we've been progressing exponentially, especially for the past 270 years.

It's progressing very slowly. The $1500 Quest Pro doesn't even have the specs of my $1000 2011 PC.

Neither in 2002 nor in 2012 you could order groceries online where I live. Now it's available in multiple supermarkets and that's how I get my groceries.

In 2012, Internet connections were much slower (40x in my case), there were far less YouTube videos and they were of much worse quality and sophistication. Android smartphones were a bad experience (for me at least), I don't know about iPhones, but my friend switched from iPhone to Android in 2012. Many people still used Core 2 Duos. SSDs were not common at all (and when someone bought one, it was usually about 120 GB), although I had one. Most people did not have a smartphone yet (I had one). New laptops battery life was 2-4 hours instead of 12-24 hours. Only the newest laptops had a 1080p display. Wireless earphones or headphones were very rare and they offered much worse sound quality than today, the battery would last a maximum of 3 hours (writing from experience). AI was seen as science-fiction outside of machine-learning, Singularity and Futurism circles. There were far less emojis than now. Language translation sucked and was almost unusable. The WWW was far smaller than it is today. Electric cars weren't really a thing outside of Tesla enthusiasts and many people were ridiculing an electric car idea. Elon Musk wasn't yet well known. Smartphonography sucked compared to now. DLSRs were getting popular, good mirrorless photo camera wasn't a thing yet. 4K wasn't a thing. More than 60 Hz wasn't a thing. People gamed on Wii, Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, Nintendo DS and Sony PSP. Angry Birds were very popular. Anime wasn't as popular outside of Japan as it is now. You couldn't legally buy a digital manga. China's GDP was 35% lower than today, Ireland's GDP was 58% lower than today. Overall, it was a different time than today.

I'm not even writing about Full Dive, I mean something that's actually decent and practical.

Then you are a bad person and you should be punished.

I hope it becomes 100% illegal everywhere. Can't people be decent? Is it really that difficult?

Good and positive to know. Being pro-mortality and deathist is what I dislike the most in Lex Fridman.

I'm adding some other guaranteed 2023 products: mid-range and low-end RDNA 3 cards, Intel Meteor Lake, AMD V-Cache Zen 4 desktop CPUs, Zen 4 and RDNA 3 laptop, Intel Sapphire Rapids, Intel Ponte Vecchio, AMD Bergamo, Genoa-X and Sienna and Qualcomm Snapdragon AR2 (specially-designed, TSMC's 4nm, new augmented reality glasses SoC). OpenAI's GPT-4 will be out by the end of 2023 for sure as well. Stable Diffusion will get better. The fastest supercomputer won't be Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility's Frontier anymore, but Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora. These things I'm certain of. There are other, which are less certain like Emerald Rapids or PS5 Slim.

More change has happened since the year 2000 than in the whole 20th century. And I don't mean just computers. World economy was ⅓ current in the year 2000 (33 vs 100 trillion $). I remember the year 2000 and I can attest that. The 21st century is much, much bigger than the 20th century. Some people don't realize that for some reason. And the next 10 years will bring more change than the previous 22.

As I have failed in my predictions to this day, I'm not so eager to make predictions anymore. I think that things will gradually move forward, with some problems along the way. World GDP seems to double every 15 years for example. Computers will certainly get faster, but I don't know how quickly. Medicine will also certainly get better. I don't think that flying cars make much sense, I'm much more interested in VR and AR. 🙂

I hope for very substantial developments in ending aging and in human augmentation. Because with these two, we are not in such a hurry for tech developments. I don't mind computers evolving only +20% per year, if I can live for hundreds of years in good health. The reason I'm bothered by current pace of change is because we cannot wait like that. It's not about being impatient, but about the fact that billions of people won't make it and some will. We do not know if we will be in that second group. And I also hope for a completely new paradigm of computing that is very scalable like silicon integrated circuits were. Furthermore, I hope that people will be careful, levelheaded and thoughtful with development and use of AI. I don't expect the Singularity in the 2030s or 2040s. 2060s is the earliest possible time.

I looked at lexica.art (today and some weeks ago), but I don't see a reason to browse it instead of human artists works. There are enough human artworks to look at and AI outputs are currently low-quality. I prefer human art at the moment, I won't be spending time looking at AI art. What I'm waiting for is much better recommendation, labeling, filtering and search for human art. For example, current DA search and home page are rubbish. Twitter allows blocking an unlimited number of users, but makes it less convenient to browse trough hundreds of images. No website is perfect unfortunately.

In Kurzweil's predictions there is a Global Government in 2019, there are no wars and instead of smartphones, people use AR contact lenses, also capable of VR. But there were also predictions about World War 3, mass famines, mass scarcity etc. The future is different than in predictions.