SurroundSwimming3494

SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1h89fk wrote

Reply to comment by Saylar in Hype bubble by fortunum

I can see some jobs going away this decade, but I don't think there'll be significant economic disruption until the 2030's. My overall expectation is that many lines of work will be enhanced by AI/robotics for a long while being they start reducing in size (and by size, I mean workers). I just don't see a jobapocalypse happening this decade like others on this sub.

>The world will start to change radically in the next 5 years is my prediction and we're not ready. Not even remotely.

This is a bit excessive, in my opinion. I'd be willing to bet that the world will look very similar to the way it looks today 5 years from now. Will there be change (both technological and societal) in that time period just like there was change in the last 5 years? Of course there will, but not so much change that the world will look entirely different in that timespan. Change simply doesn't happen that fast.

The world will change, and we need to adjust to that change, but I'm just saying we shouldn't go full on Chicken Little, if you know what I mean.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1h5w35 wrote

Reply to comment by Ortus12 in Hype bubble by fortunum

>People don't understand how close we are to the singularity.

But you don't know that for a fact, though. I don't know why some people act as if they know for a fact what the future holds. It's one thing to believe it's close, but to claim that you know the singularity is close (which is what it seems you're doing in your comment) comes off as pretty arrogant.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1g9c1p wrote

Reply to comment by Gimbloy in Hype bubble by fortunum

>It’s time to sound the alarm.

I agree that we as a society should start preparing at least in some ways for possible future scenarios and make sure that we smoothly transition to the world that awaits us in the next few years/decades, but saying it's time in to "sound the alarm" creates unnecessary fearmongering, IMO. A rehashed GPT3 and AI generated images, as impressive as they are, should not elicit that type of reaction. We are still ways from AI that truly transforms the world, IMO.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j14o4rl wrote

>We're still planning our life in terms of which college we should attend, jobs, careers, salary, or even retirement, while it's painfully obvious that all those concepts are about to lose all their meaning soon.

It's not a good idea to stop planning for your future life because of events that are as of right now hypothetical and thus may never come to pass, or at least come to pass in your lifetime.

Also keep in mind that your belief isn't universally held at all and that many AI researchers, futurists, sociologists, economists, etc. would disagree with it.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j0588m1 wrote

I'm somewhat more skeptical. This AI isn't factally reliable, yet, so you can't really trust it with answers. Another reason I'm skeptical is because many people don't even try to conversate with the automated customer service agents we have now and skip right to a human agent, or would prefer to speak to them. I definitely think future models will definitely reshape customer service, but not this one. I might be wrong, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j00l2sf wrote

I highly doubt this version of chatgpt (if that's what you're referring to) will ever have much of an impact on the job market.

That being said, I can see future models having noticeable impacts on the economy, with the more advanced they get the bigger the economic impact.

By 2025, my guess is that the job market of today will still look largely the same as it does today (with the big exception being that significant parts of it have would have become reliant on AI tools and many other fields would be in the process of adopting them - I think it could be a whole decade from now before AI is ubiquitous in the entire workforce), only because that date is pretty near and AI, although unquestionably impressive today, is still the subject of quite of bit of hype IMO when you not only inspect it closely and see that the AI in question still has significant shortcomings but also become more aware of how wide the breadth of tasks humans can perform (particularly at our jobs) is and how much further AI has to go in order to rival that breadth, so I think it still has a ways to go before it has the capacity to noticeably impact the workforce, let alone be adopted by workplaces. Those are my 2 cents.

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