Theta_Ome

Theta_Ome t1_j9d95bb wrote

Reply to comment by DesmondMilesDant in Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market? by DesmondMilesDant

I have no idea what ‘barrons article’ you’re talking about.

I think it’s a mistake to assume bonds and equities will ‘eventually’ correct. The inverse relationship is modern and as a hedge, it failed miserably. People positioned their retirements religiously around it like gospel and were shafted.

While i don’t buy what Dalio is selling, i think the all weather fund and similar strategies will continue to gain traction with bonds playing a smaller role.

And i think it’s a mistake to assume inflation will keep people out of cash. The market is positioned for a massive event style move, higher or lower, not business as usual.

Cash on the sidelines is necessary to capitalize on it. The opportunity cost of not having cash to deploy is greater than the inflationary impact towards cash.

I think the hype around potential Japanese monetary policy shifting is overblown.

And Powells most recent statements about immigration impact on the wage/price/inflation situation had him exceptionally dovish

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Theta_Ome t1_j9c8k8h wrote

Reply to Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market? by DesmondMilesDant

The failed inverse correlation between equity and bonds is a liquidation event in preparation for a downturn.

The rest of this felt like a newsletter i can’t find the unsubscribe links for.

While i think it’s great you’re trying to go for depth and add quality to WSB, you’re all over the place looking like a Charlie day meme and not getting to the point.

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Theta_Ome t1_iy2fluu wrote

Reply to comment by bignewsforyou in Entrenched food inflation for years to come. by Doyoufeelme101

It wasn’t common knowledge exactly but it leaked when this (and many other) cases came out. This was so systemic that people got sloppy as they do. There’s more to it than just this link, and I have no doubt there was some effort to squash those leaks. But the did try to initially claim that they couldn’t possibly be price fixing with artificially created shortfalls in slaughter - since they had two years frozen in massive storage facilities.

The amount of fraud that has been found in commodities last couple years is insane.

It relates to this but it was every single one of the big ones, beef and chicken, I think pork was not in it but I’m not sure. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/jbs-reaches-icebreaker-settlement-beef-price-fixing-claims-2022-02-02/ Specifically U.S. but no doubt it affected global chains

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Theta_Ome t1_ixyvr6y wrote

Reply to Day trade VS Value investing <---> Jesse Livermore VS Benjamin Graham by stock_122

Active trading is a skill that can be profitable if achieved but disastrous if you fail. Value investing is benefiting from a long biased market, delayed taxes on compounding gains, and a banking system that rewards hodlers and the smart use of debt against it instead of creating a taxable event by selling. But it teaches you to so nothing, essentially, putting you and your emotions at the mercy of the market swings making you an inactive participant.

They’re both wrong because it’s only a small piece of financial strategy presented as the whole picture.

In reality, each one is a wolf speaking the gospel of braising to brand new baby lambs.

Wee lamb.

But seriously, do both Active and inactive trading/investing until one just doesn’t work for you. Choose the thing you’re good at that makes money and repeat.

I like Graham well enough.

But Rockefeller is my lord and savior

and Kirby Rosplock is my teacher of the gospel of finance.

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Theta_Ome t1_ixyto2w wrote

Reply to Entrenched food inflation for years to come. by Doyoufeelme101

Crops are fine, LNG is a component of fertilizer and it’s affecting its price and availability.

Meat producers got in trouble for decades of price fixing through Covid, they have about two years of meat production stacked in freezers to keep prices where they are. They’re releasing the strategic poultry reserve because the government said ‘how does prison sound?’

If you follow those long term farms, you’ll notice huge sections of farmland being bought in new places in the U.S. and fully mature trees can and would be transplanted if their only issue is water in their current location.

Countries now recognize the power of food in populations and the correlation/causation between food insecurity and overthrown government.

More important is - more than half of farmers are retiring in the next few years and were surveyed saying they didn’t have anyone to pass the work onto.

Anyone seen any kids growing up this generation wanting to be tomato or pig farmers? Me neither…

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