TrueBirch
TrueBirch t1_j2xcr0m wrote
Reply to comment by IntriguingKnight in 2022 Asset Return [OC] by rosetechnology
Look up I bonds. They're almost too good to be true. They are incredibly safe and hold their value against inflation. The only downside is that you can't make a withdrawal for a little while after you buy them.
TrueBirch t1_j078kbj wrote
I have a tangential question. I work in a 1,000-person corporation. Lots of employees keep their computers running 24/7. Do you think there's potential in running models in a distributed manner across corporate LANs?
TrueBirch OP t1_izfuaid wrote
Reply to comment by vleester in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
I actually agree with you. I was going for a Christmas theme and it really didn't work out. Normally I'm very restrained in my use of color, and I think I'll go back to that aesthetic.
I also looked at it on my phone after making the post and realized it's hard to read on mobile. I could have dropped the on-bar labels without losing any data, and I could have made it narrower and longer for mobile-friendliness.
TrueBirch OP t1_izfnruv wrote
Reply to comment by ScaryFoal558760 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
Good point, PNC should add that expense
TrueBirch OP t1_izfe850 wrote
Reply to comment by David_F_Pumpkins in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
PNC assumes that you pay each one minimum wage for an hour.
TrueBirch OP t1_izcqa31 wrote
Reply to comment by navywater in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
PNC Bank uses the federal minimum wage to calculate the cost of an unskilled farm laborer. Sadly, some farm workers earn even less than that.
TrueBirch OP t1_izcq5tm wrote
Reply to comment by drthsideous in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
The numbers come from PNC Bank. I used their numbers since they have a whole system put together.
TrueBirch OP t1_izcpv9l wrote
Reply to comment by Ok_Frosting4780 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
Some minimum wage jobs aren't designed to support someone living solo. I live in Washington DC, where the minimum wage is north of $16/hour. That makes sense here. But it's still not enough to buy a studio apartment.
TrueBirch OP t1_izcpqsa wrote
Reply to comment by NovaticFlame in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
I encourage constructive feedback, so thank you. And don't bash your own skills. I started my journey in data science by reading Visualize This. Skip ahead a decade and I run data science for a corporation.
TrueBirch OP t1_izcj7o8 wrote
Reply to comment by SilverStar9192 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
PNC makes some judgement calls to be sure. In their defense, they use the same methodology every year, so at least the numbers are consistent year-over-year.
TrueBirch OP t1_izcj1uv wrote
Reply to comment by OL-jordy in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
As PNC explains it in their calculations, "This represents the total cost of all the gifts bestowed by True Love when you count each repetition of the song, totaling 364 presents."
TrueBirch OP t1_izceqbo wrote
Reply to comment by NovaticFlame in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
I actually agree with you. I saw this on my phone after posting it and realized I really should have used a different approach. I included my fully reproducible code if you want to give it a stab.
TrueBirch OP t1_izced5o wrote
Reply to comment by samirac1e in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
Pretty sad how far the federal minimum wage is from a living wage. I don't know if $15 is the right number, but $7.25 is too damn low.
TrueBirch OP t1_izce8hk wrote
Reply to comment by ThunderThighsMegee in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
PNC Bank's annual report makes a lot of judgement calls. That's inevitable given the subject matter. I'll give them credit, though, since they keep their methodology consistent from year to year, which lets them accurately report the inflation.
TrueBirch OP t1_izbhc90 wrote
Reply to comment by Macrophage87 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
PNC sets the methodology. To be fair, they've kept it consistent over the years to enable year over year comparisons.
TrueBirch OP t1_izbfm7v wrote
Reply to comment by Macrophage87 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
That's the cost of rental, not the cost of buying dancers
TrueBirch OP t1_izbf9gr wrote
Reply to comment by Macrophage87 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
Easiest way to share code without any external dependencies
TrueBirch OP t1_izb9fp0 wrote
Reply to comment by Milamber69reddit in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
PNC cites "a national bird supplier" as its source without giving additional detail.
TrueBirch OP t1_izb99iy wrote
Reply to comment by cox_ph in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
True, but I'd say that geese are even worse. Especially when protecting their eggs.
TrueBirch OP t1_izb6wgp wrote
Reply to comment by lightms1729 in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
According to PNC, "Hatcheries provided the cost of the hens and swans." Not sure the exact seller. This website suggests that some places charge even more.
TrueBirch OP t1_izb47vx wrote
Reply to comment by TrueBirch in Swans: The ultimate gift from your true love [OC] by TrueBirch
library(tidyverse)
price <- tibble(item_name = c("12 Partridges in a Pear Tree", "22 Turtle Doves", "30 French Hens",
"36 Calling Birds", "40 Gold Rings", "42 Geese a-Laying", "42 Swans a-Swimming",
"40 Maids a-Milking", "36 Ladies Dancing", "30 Lords a-Leaping",
"22 Pipers Piping", "12 Drummers Drumming"),
total_cost = c(3362.16, 6600, 3187.5, 5399.64, 9960, 5040, 78749.58, 290,
33232.48, 41940, 6042.8, 3266.93)) %>%
mutate(total_cost_rounded = scales::dollar(round(total_cost)))
price$item_name_ordered <-
ordered(price$item_name, levels = price$item_name)
ggplot(price, aes(x = item_name_ordered, y = total_cost, fill = "#D6001C")) +
geom_col() +
geom_label(aes(label = total_cost_rounded),
position = position_stack(
vjust = 0.5)) +
coord_flip() +
labs(
title = "Total cost of each gift in the song \"The 12 Days of Christmas\"",
y = "Total cost of each item in the United States in 2022",
x = NULL,
caption = "Created by TrueBirch using data from PNC's Christmas Price Index.
Total cost is the unit cost multiplied by number of times a gift is given."
) +
scale_y_continuous(label = scales::dollar) +
scale_fill_manual(values = "#D6001C") +
theme(
panel.grid.major = element_line(colour = "gray60"),
panel.grid.minor = element_line(colour = NA),
panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(),
panel.background = element_rect(fill = "#599C5D"),
plot.background = element_rect(fill = "gray93"),
legend.position = "none",
plot.title = element_text(size = 17),
plot.caption = element_text(size = 11),
axis.title = element_text(size = 13),
axis.text = element_text(size = 12),
strip.text = element_text(size = 12)
)
TrueBirch OP t1_izb46ol wrote
I created the chart using R and ggplot2. The full reproducible code is pasted in a following comment.
This post made me curious about how much you'd have to pay for each set of gift in The 12 Days of Christmas. Turns out PNC Bank tallies the prices every year. They make a few judgement calls, such as treating a "maid a-milking" as the cost of hiring a single individual at the federal minimum wage. Here's how PNC explains its methodology:
>
"The partridge and dove prices came from a national bird supplier. Hatcheries provided the cost of the hens and swans. The price of the geese came from a waterfowl farm. A national pet chain provided the price of the calling birds, or canaries. The pear tree price came from a Pennsylvania nursery. A national jewelry chain provided the cost of five 14-carat gold rings, and PHILADANCO, a modern dance company in Philadelphia, offered the price of ladies dancing, while Philadelphia Ballet supplied the cost of the Lords-a-Leaping. Maids-a-milking are the only unskilled laborers in the PNC CPI and, as such, they reflect the federal minimum wage. Year after year, the sources for the prices remain the same for the most part for consistency, but they have changed on occasion due to changes in the market or business landscape."
TrueBirch t1_iynqhc9 wrote
Reply to comment by The_Bundaberg_Joey in [R] Statistical vs Deep Learning forecasting methods by fedegarzar
Happy to help!
TrueBirch t1_iymfk2r wrote
Reply to comment by ThePhantomPhoton in [R] Statistical vs Deep Learning forecasting methods by fedegarzar
When I first read your comment, I thought you were still talking about Duck Hunt. I'd read the heck out of that whitepaper.
TrueBirch t1_j2xd51a wrote
Reply to comment by Eli_Renfro in 2022 Asset Return [OC] by rosetechnology
This is terrific advice. Dump your money into an index fund or target date fund and forget about it for a decade or three. You can't beat the returns per hour of work.