50% for the USA is for them to qualify for the round of 16. All they need is one win (against Iran is most likely) and then a draw (eg. against Wales). 50% could be the right ball park.
Also, to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.
The underlying data is aggregated from Betfair. Data analysis was done in Python and I used Vega/Altair for the visualisation.
EDIT: Just to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.
2022 FIFA World Cup finishing position probability per team [OC]
adebar OP t1_ix4lx6i wrote
Reply to comment by Naive-Kangaroo3031 in 2022 FIFA World Cup finishing position probability per team [OC] by adebar
50% for the USA is for them to qualify for the round of 16. All they need is one win (against Iran is most likely) and then a draw (eg. against Wales). 50% could be the right ball park.
Also, to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.