andydh96
andydh96 t1_je0ttky wrote
Reply to comment by NetQuarterLatte in New Yorkers overwhelmingly support bail changes ahead of state budget deadline: Poll by Grass8989
You either didn't ready my comment carefully or purposely misinterpreted it, so I'll make it easier for you.
I said bail reform is not the SOLE CAUSE of crime increase -- that's easy to see from crime stats nationally that likewise show increases in non-bail reform states and locales. But neither did I say that COVID was the sole cause -- that too would be disingenuous and an overly-simplistic conclusion (same as your stance which seems to be only blaming bail reform). Effects can have multiple causes -- this is why statistical analyses exist to calculate how much of the increase we can attribute to one factor versus another.
I would suggest against looking at global crime statistics, its like comparing apples and oranges (besides the fact that reported data for many countries are unreliable). Too many different variables across countries makes the comparison far less useful than comparing among states for making policy decisions based off those statistical trends.
andydh96 t1_jdxsba5 wrote
Reply to comment by RoozGol in New Yorkers overwhelmingly support bail changes ahead of state budget deadline: Poll by Grass8989
Crime as a whole rose nationally during COVID. It's disingenuous (and incorrect) to imply that the increase in crime here is solely because of bail reform when crime also increased in non-bail reform states/cities.
andydh96 t1_je26v7v wrote
Reply to comment by NetQuarterLatte in New Yorkers overwhelmingly support bail changes ahead of state budget deadline: Poll by Grass8989
I'm sorry but objectively speaking, what you are saying isn't fully accurate. COVID shut down the national economy. As is typically the case when the economy and employment rates decline, crime goes up and COVID and its short term effects were no exception. Making it sound like we should be beyond COVID is a bit of an over-simplification -- yes in theory we are beyond the pandemic stage but we are still suffering from indirect effects particularly with the economy, supply-chain issues, etc. I think sane minds can agree the economy still hasn't recovered fully. Just because we aren't dealing with something in our faces doesn't mean its effects aren't there. The timing of the COVID waves too isn't really relevant - neither NYC nor the rest of the country operates within its own bubble, just not how society or economies work. When NYC shut down first, it still had ripple effects across the country despite the virus not being nationally widespread yet.
On an aside, I also question the validity of your statement about our crime rates increasing at a larger rate compared to other large US cities but I don't have hard statistics to support my skepticism. Care to link for my own education?