I think solutions are going to be found to a lot of things that people currently ascribe as needing AGI some time before AGI itself is created.

What a plodding boring presentation, even at 2.8x it still feels slow.

If the cost is per query answered then we might even see a day where you are not waiting on hold ever again. Companies boasting about "No queue customer support" will catch on quick.

UBI will act as the capitalism off ramp. The cushion needed to take the world from the current paradigm to the next without wide spread destabilization.

What's the next paradigm? That will completely depend on the speed that certain technologies proceed at, breakthroughs in the next few years will shape society going forward.

> The results of the auction made Nukie the most expensive VHS tape in history

RLM memed a copy of Nukie into the most expensive VHS tape ever.

Now this is shitposting.

> We started this about four years ago before OpenAI and SD kinda swept the landscape and are thinking now how to incorporate pieces of those into it.

Elevenlabs can be used for voice cloning and synthesis https://beta.elevenlabs.io/s

SD is being used to create textures directly in blender using the depth map feature of 2.0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzpSj8JOb1c

and you can likely find a prompt for GPT3 to create Seinfeld scripts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1onxri0duN0 (there are some other voice synth tools linked in the description)

some people use words like that as turns of phrase and are not religious.

You will find atheists uttering phrases like "God fucking damn it" and "Jesus Christ" as expletives because it's common parlance.

Much like 'pray' being synonymous with 'hope'

Same with using Yiddish expressions without being Jewish.

intrusive thoughts that pose a whole new level of terror. Now you can share the fun!

Being able to whistle a lead line and then have the prompted 'style' turn it into whatever you want.

Anyone that's thought of a catchy line in their head but no musical ability...

Music is going to get very interesting in the next decade.

Even in cases where you are not uploading to a site to sell photos/art a lot of websites where you submit any sort of image needs to have it in their T+Cs that they can do a shitload of things with the image just so they have permission to share it to other people, move it between servers, process the image (compress it to save space) etc...

those all were ok until generative AI came on the scene and now those same terms is like giving cart blanche to the site if they want to create or fine tune a model.

why did you put that evil in my mind.

The willpower needed not to use that at every possible juncture might be a bit much for me.

need to add in the stochastic triangular eye darts, you get when looking at another persons face and also have a threshold for turn radius so once you start facing away too much (could even be bias per left/right as a setting to compensate for webcam angle) the eyes sync back up with your real ones.

In the short term, If you are in a company and they introduce an AI helper like those that are going to be coming with Microsoft Office, start using it, learn it inside and out. People that eschew it will have worst performance and will be the first on the chopping block.

In the long term, hope alignment is solved and that we don't copystamp the light cone with paperclips or atomic scale smiley faces.

> but it just keeps jumping closer to the present.

Connor Leahy described this as a "pro gamer move"

> "If you see a probability distribution only ever update in one direction, just do the whole update instead of waiting for the predictable evidence to come, just update all the way bro."

Kinda looks like Kurzweil's "Law of Accelerating Returns"

You might find this section of an interview with Ajeya Cotra (of biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines fame)

Starts at 29.14 https://youtu.be/pJSFuFRc4eU?t=1754

Where she talks about how several benchmarks were past early last year that surveys of ML workers had a median of 2026.
Also she casts doubt on people that are working in the field but are not working on specifically forecasting AGI/TAI directly as a source for useful information.

Only thing I think it can be is the Helion reactor design. Extracting the energy directly rather than Heat > Steam > Turbine. I'd imagine that would lead to much cheaper plant design and fabrication. Also if the design is good at a specific scale then arrays can be constructed.

edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1vyMcqiVtA

I wonder just how vast the amount of problems is, that can be suddenly fixed because the spec now includes "access to unlimited cheap/free energy"

If this does not outright break it's going to severely dent the

Good/Fast\Cheap triangle.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/05/helion-series-e/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Altman#Nuclear_energy

edit:

>He is chairman of the board for Helion and Oklo, two nuclear energy companies. He has said that nuclear energy is one of the most important areas of technological development.[

https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/zr0dkv/deleted_tweet_from_rippling_cofounder_microsoft/

https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/zr0dkv/deleted_tweet_from_rippling_cofounder_microsoft/

One thing that I've not seen anyone pick up on was Fusion, as far as I know Mr Altman is backing Helion, that 'having something to show very soon' and 'commercial by 2028' are likely telling as to what Helion are getting up to.

Edit: might as well add the refs here too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Altman#Nuclear_energy https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/05/helion-series-e/

I've heard plenty said about the societal level benefits of a one party rule country, e.g. being able to plan ahead without fear that it will get stopped or defunded when an apposing party comes to power. This has allowed for a lot more progress in terms of planning and infrastructure than otherwise would.

However the downside of such a thing is that there is lack of care to the individual, and at some level, ends justifying means.

The rules and guides for a lot of safety measures are written in blood, ways to make sure that dire mistakes can never happen again.

I feel there was a very real benefit to this at the speed everything moves at, drugs can be proscribed along with a verbose list of side effects and cofounding medication.

I do also feel that rules and guidelines need to be updated to reflect reality. e.g. as drug simulation becomes better it should be relied on more, I feel regulations should alter in lock step with how easy it is to verify drugs in silico.

> Maybe from technological standpoint but it will take time for humans to adopt it.

Look at what happened with ChatGPT. There is no adoption on-ramp, it was released to the world and now educational institutes are scrabbling to play catch up.

You can bet if a headline reads 'china cures [x]' where x is anything from aging to cancer to any much sort after medical treatment, that timelines will be shortened due to public pressure.

don't need to check the comment history that style of formatting shines like a red light now, woe betide anyone that naturally types like that. They'll need to change things up to avoid being accused of being a bot!

(or on the other extreme, people get so used to reading things formatted with that cadence, it starts being unconsciously replicated in their own work.)