I don’t see a lot of those happening, but I’m just guessing too. I think a lot of these predictions will still be in the lab/discontinued by 2030, but the ones that make it out of the lab will be noticeable in the late 2030’s.

Edit: I think you can talk to “AI” now. I’ve seen interviews with a GPT3 bot, but it was underwhelming in my opinion.

No, because the left wing and right wing belong to the same bird.

Well said

I feel like humanoid robots are like FSD cars and fusion in the sense that they’re always 30 years away. That being said, I hope I’m wrong and humanoid rub-and-tug bots become a thing soon.

Why would the creators of AGI want consciousness/sentience in their AGI? I think the AGI creators would want to keep it under their control as long as possible.

I think we already have technology that society isn’t morally ready for.

Is Waymo a company that intends to provide thejr service to one city only? Let’s face it, this is another step for the company. If all goes well, they’ll venture into other cities.

No it’s still in testing if it’s relegated to one city. Otherwise they would’ve rolled out to other cities.

I hope they’re right; I’d love for AGI to be here by 2032. Even more so, I would be elated if AGI has substantially improved life for everyone. Time will tell…

!RemindMe 10 years

I feel like self driving cars are similar to fusion in the sense that they’re always 20 years away. Hopefully the testing goes well and they can expand.

People have already attached GPT3 to computer avatars and nothing has changed: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PqbB07n_uQ4

I don’t think much would change if it was coupled with Alexa, Siri etc.

It had memory/performance issues. Some older threads talk about it in more detail.

> Why do people on this sub seem so much more confident in their predictions than everyone else?

I think it’s because this place (like most subreddits) is an echo chamber.

>What is it that people on this sub know that nobody else in STEM is aware of?

Good question. In my opinion, I think people put too much stock into early stage developments. I think there’s a good chance that most of the products/developments that get posted here daily won’t go that far.

I don’t think it’ll be imminent, but I think we’ll have it eventually. The closest thing we have is Gato by Deepmind, and that’s a far cry from AGI.

Getting close to reality just like fusion and self driving cars right? I think this is going to be like fusion and FSD cars in the sense that we’ll need AGI to create practical humanoid robots.

Technological Singularity by Vernor Vinge:

https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html

I really hope this trial works out and we can eradicate blood diseases and have all the blood we could ever want/need.

!RemindMe 5 years

> it seems as if we're approaching the holy grail of regenerative medicine extremely fast.

What is extremely fast in your opinion? I feel like it would take 10 years minimum for this drug to be available for the masses (assuming the FDA approves it and all that other stuff).

> I’m not assuming it’ll be sentient, I’m just saying an Oracle ASI equally as dangerous as one with agency. It MIGHT be sentient. Or it might NOT be sentient, but still dangerous, I.e. the paper clip maximizer scenario.

Meh, the dangers of an ASI can be discussed in another thread. We were initially talking about how an ASI might manifest, so it’s getting off course.

>Like just AGI you mean? Yeah I agree with that of course. But ASI, again, seems short sighted. If Google makes human level AGI, but it’s just as smart as say Einstein, yeah of course they’ll use it to get richer. But if they create something that makes Einstein look like an ant, they’d be foolish to use it in such a way.

Okay. Just don’t be surprised if companies keep doing what they’ve been doing for literally thousands of years and use their products to make a profit.

That’s assuming this ASI will be sentient.

> Even if an ASI is an oracle alignment is still just as much of an issue. It can tell them to do something that sounds completely harmless to even the smartest of humans and even non-ASI AGIs, but in reality lets it out of the box.

You’re assuming the ASI will be sentient. Teams are doing everything to ensure it’s not sentient.

> What do you mean? That's exactly what ASI is. We're talking about something orders of magnitudes more intelligent than Albert Einstein here. A machine like that will be capable of recursively improving its own intelligence at an insane rate and will eventually know how to achieve any goal compatible with the laws of physics in the most efficient way possible for any possible set of constraints. That is basically by definition a magical genie that can do anything in a split second.

Okay. Then the owners will probably use this non-sentient tech to take care of themselves and the rest of us next.

What is your definition of consciousness?

Who knows if they’ll even let their ASI do the tasks. They might ask how to do it on their own to ensure the ASI stays as an Oracle like entity and not some runaway genie.

>Why would they want to recoup their investment?

Unless the ASI is a genie that can turn everything around in a split second, they’re most likely going to want to take care of themselves first and everyone else right after that.

>The moment ASI comes online is the moment money loses all of its value

That’s assuming whoever creates it will let it run on its own. There’s a whole subreddit dedicated towards why that’s a problem (/r/controlproblem). I really doubt the founders and employees will let their ASI run wild. For anyone to not recoup their investment and let their product run wild is silly imo.

What if I told you executives might use it to make money AND solve the world’s problems?