FIFA World Cup 2022 saw a surprising number of unlikely match outcomes. Here's a way to estimate how exceptional it was. I simulate an experiment when I bet on the least likely outcomes. Surprisingly this dead-simple strategy is beneficial [OC]
Submitted by ikashnitsky t3_zv556w in dataisbeautiful
ikashnitsky OP t1_izwfa4l wrote
Reply to comment by MarkVarga in Football betting experiment: what if I consistently bet against the odds, on the least likely match outcome? This is the English Premier League. What happened in 2019/20? (sorry for the third similar post, I test different competitions incrementally after the jaw-dropping World Cups' results) [OC] by ikashnitsky
Thanks, I can't see how the medium option may be beneficial, I guess this would be betting on the draw most of the times. I can check, of course.The question is: how do I report back the results? I feel I have already exhausted the limit of attention people are willing to spare here =)