kmtrp

kmtrp OP t1_isvicfb wrote

I am an expert on this subject matter, and know what's easily automatable and what's not. And very soon 9 out of 10 programmers, who focus mostly on implementing features, squashing bugs, etc., will be completely superfluous.

That 90% of people with generally high paying jobs are completely oblivious to the fact that a freight train is about to ram them and I can't believe the denial and self delusion of most of those. It's insane.

And people tend to overvalue what they do, and truly believe they are unexpendable and very often they are not, so be careful with an expert's opinion on themselves too.

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kmtrp OP t1_isvbhmv wrote

People kept doing portraits of people when cameras were invented, sure, but only 0.001% would now keep making a living with that while 99.999% were suddenly out of a job.

Because the group "I want whatever that works that is cheaper, faster etc" is giganourmous compared to "I want it made by a human regardless of time, price etc".

In short: most demand disappears.

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kmtrp OP t1_isv9zq5 wrote

I've worked as a programmer and also been involved in software startups, and I can confidently say the main work of most programmers will be completely automated in a few short years. Maybe 1 out of 10 of those can keep a job as an AI whisperer or adviser to clients et. but even that more "creative" job is based on information easily integrated in a model. It's going to be rough.

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kmtrp t1_isec6nl wrote

Blame the FDA and... realize biology is a fucking mess. Specially with novel therapeutic vectors. We've rushed before in clinical trials that have maimed and killed humans.

I remember one of those, guess what happened? The field was frozen for almost 10 years. Nobody wanted to put money or political face on and have the same thing happen again.

So it takes years and years of mountains of paperwork and money and tests and more paperwork to prove safety first and then efficacy. I'd rather do most of these by compassionate use, but... I'm not in charge.

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kmtrp t1_isebjuz wrote

I don't think you know about big pharma. They want these things by yesterday, because of money, you know? Always have but are heavily slowed down by the FDA's guidelines demanding all evidence in the world that this won't ever ever backfire in humans. This means more time and money spent performing safety preclinical and clinical trials and endless mountains of paperwork and years of back and forth with them.

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kmtrp t1_irjv2w1 wrote

People going on about sentient machines, making humans extinct... nah. This is the real nightmare, and it is more than plausible.

The first people accessing an ASI will be tempted in a way no human has been tempted before. Not using that power to alleviate human suffering may be less dangerous than using it as you see fit, regardless of your intentions. Power corrupts, and this will be a power like no other.

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