Why wait for AI?

I live in Japan and did during the earthquake and tsunami in 2011. If you think that earthquakes would cause civil unrest and government collapse then you really don't understand the country.

🤨

I have to admit that I've started becoming very suspicious of long, polite and articulate posts on Reddit.

You're right about the parasocial aspect of music... but there's no reason the current generation of LLMs couldn't manage that as well.

If Hatsune Miku can do it already... https://ec.crypton.co.jp/pages/prod/virtualsinger/cv01_us

I was looking for this answer! I agree - I don't necessarily expect any specific thing from the book to come true but he captured the chaotic, faster than seems possible tumble into the future perfectly.

I also want an honorable mention to go to Cory Doctorow's Walkaway for how it depicts decentralized resistance to oligarchs.

I think the "Effective Altruism" movement beat you to it.

I wonder what all that free time would do to marriages?

Likewise, what would it mean to marriages if aging can be reversed and we have indefinite lifespans?

Thanks!

Do you know of any AI focused ETFs?

You are absolutely right - and quite early in that realization. Reminds me of this quote by Winston Churchill:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

Thanks a lot ChatGPT. I'm now suspicious of all high quality, polite replies.

I completely agree. I don't think we're going to make it without some way of solving problems at a higher level than we're creating them.

Me too!!

It's important to recognize that, as AGI enables other disruptive technologies, nobody can really predict how things are going to work out. That's kind of the premise of the Singularity.

An AGI somehow figuring out post-scarcity economics and genuine democracy certainly could come to pass - but I expect it would have to be an ASI and I'm not smart enough to suggest how it would work.

In the near term I'd expect AGI to facilitate more technical solutions like large scale carbon capture, advanced materials science for batteries and renewables and dramatically better and cleaner energy sources. Advances like these could solve the issues you brought up without requiring full-scale economic/social restructuring.

I think that AGI is the only viable path out of the deep ecological hole we, as a species, have dug for ourselves.

Of course, it's possible that a sudden acceleration in collapse derails the Singularity and modern civilization with it. Given that, I think we'll just barely make it.

Advances like AlphaFold, AlphaTensor and AI fusion plasma control are just the beginning. We're starting to grasp dramatically more effective scientific and technological tools that will enable us to solve currently intractable problems.

It's possible to have good judgement in some areas and poor in others. In this case, I'd call it poor.

It's not. He's a narcissist with poor judgement.

Why?

What made you think that that timeline was realistic in 2016?

Yeah, it has been an interesting, unintentional trial run. Hopefully the lessons learned can be applied when UBI becomes unavoidable.

Yes, that's true and in the long run I'm inclined to think that will be the case again. However, we don't live in the "long run" and there could be a lot of very real suffering in the near term.

Also, it's entirely possible that the speed and scale of AGI driven change may be such that historical lessons won't apply.

Like most tools, it will allow one person to be as productive as many. What the redundant "many" will do to survive is an open question.

So... business as usual?