third0burns

third0burns t1_j8dz4nu wrote

This is completely a-historical. Has nobody ever heard of AI winters? The history of AI is defined by long stretches of zero progress. There was never this constant march of ever-accelerating progress. Anyone who thinks we're about to see exponential (or exponentially exponential, or whatever this guy is talking about) growth in capabilities forever doesn't know history.

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third0burns t1_j733h91 wrote

So many people look at the progress what we call AI has made in the last few years and think if progress continues at this rate, agi is right around the corner. They don't understand the fundamental limitations of our current approaches and why they won't scale past a certain point, which is likely somewhere well short of true agi. This is a really good explanation of the limitations.

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third0burns t1_j42iwm4 wrote

From the perspective of an average person it feels like a solution in search of a problem. Like outside of libertarians and people who are seriously into the tech, you never see regular people saying "you know, I could use less centralization in my life." Maybe crypto caught their attention for a while, but managing your own wallet is somewhat hard to understand, so they just went to re-centralized platforms like FTX.

And without widespread buy in from the public, companies have no reason to get into it. As others have said, it's hard to monetize a truly decentralized system. So the question is, who is actually asking for more decentralization? At the moment, I think the answer is almost no one.

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third0burns t1_ivvbv7z wrote

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third0burns t1_iux2njy wrote

I agree with your premise, and would add that space is likely to be just one of the next big things, which may also include biotech, energy tech and relatedly climate tech. It will be interesting to see what the future brings when smart people do more with their careers than trying to get people to click on ads.

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third0burns t1_ira9o1u wrote

Health insurers tried to scare us with this same message when obamacare was being debate. It didn't raise costs like they said. I don't see why it would for dental insurance.

The reason they wouldn't jack up costs is because then nobody would get dental care. And it doesn't matter how high your prices are, if nobody is buying your product you're not making money.

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